Deeply rooted in human nature is the desire to see what the future bring us. In ancient times Sybille’s priestess in a cave near Rome interpreted the sacred Sibylline Book to see what the New Year will bring for Rome. Today the desire to know the future remain as strong as ever but the technique has certainly improved. Today geopolitics is here to help us guide our way in the next year. So what will 2010 bring to us?
The end of economic crisis?
Certainly something that everybody will like to see in 2010 is an end to the powerful economic crisis that is reaping havoc on the international economy. Unfortunately 2010 is a decisive year in economy but with a double potential: to show the end of recession or to provoke another catastrophic fall. The economic dates are far away from a promising future. The US economy still has to face the consequence of a real estate market that is suffocated by offers but also in lingering demand because of the strict policy applied by banks. Also the financial sector proved its vulnerability to external pressure when the so called Dubai World bubble burst in November 2009, the New York Stock Exchange suffered a fall of 8 %. This vulnerability to foreign markets will still be a major factor influencing US economic recovery. Crushing stock markets in Asia or Middle East will sure happen in 2010 as the international banking system is slow in offering collateral and credit to pharaoh type projects that where started before the crisis and need financing to be completed. These big projects are a double edged sword, if they are not completed investor confidence will fall and as a result we will see depreciating values of stacks and bankruptcy if they are completed they will find a market already saturated and they might collapse.
A ghost is troubling the continent: Unemployment.
We all remember K. Marx beginning of Capital: a ghost is wondering the continent: communism. Well now another ghost is showing its ugly face from New York to London: unemployment. The latest data from the United States are crippling any hope of recovery, with 85.000 jobs lost in December the economy of US is in severe shape and with more than 600.000 people relinquishing any hope for finding a new job the prospects seem dim. In Europe the situation is even greyer, the German Federal Government admitted in November that the figures showing the German economy out of recession are exaggerated, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia face national bankruptcy and Spain, Italy, Ireland are following closely and with national bankruptcy looming over Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria it is still clear that Europe’s economy is continuing its downfall rapidly.
China and India: how long the miracle can last?
This year the only good news from the world economy came from India and China that relied on a huge internal market (more than 1 billon each) to continue to grow during the down fall year. But this maneuver can not be sustained for 2010 economists predict. There are two main reasons: the growth of internal market demand can only be sustained by an increase in wages that will affect both China and India’s competitiveness in external markets. The second reason is that the internal market is not producing hard currency (dollars or Euros) that both India and China need for their developing economy but they only acquired more of their one currency with no value on international market. China and India’s continuous grow could only be sustained by cutting their economy from international market and this will be another catastrophe for the international economy.
In conclusion 2010 will be decisive in shaping the way for a recovery or for another crisis.
Pakistan: between civilian rule and military intervention.
Pakistan’s situation is dire: the economy fell by 20% percent, unemployment is huge (more then 18%) and the banking system is showing sign of collapse. With the army engaged in frontier battles at its border with Afghanistan and with a continuous line of interior attacks the last things Pakistan needs is a political crisis. But this is exactly what 2010 will bring. The embattled president Ali Zardari was forced to relinquish nuclear arms control to his prime minister and also to face corruption charges that could lead to his downfall. The only civilian personality that could take his place is former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. But we must not forget that Mr. Sharif was deposed in a bloodless coup d’état in 1996 by the military and replaced with General Perwez Musharaf. Bringing him back to power will just mean that the history will be re-write. In any case if there will not be a political solution to Pakistan’s economic and political crisis the military will step in and this time with the accord of Washington that is eager to see stability at the front door of Pakistan at any cost in order to defeat the insurgency in Afghanistan. A general that will promise Washington tranquility at the southern border of Afghanistan will be acclaimed just as Perwez Musharaf was in 2001 after September attacks.
Latin America.
2010 also witnessed another tension flaring up: in Honduras a coup d’état mounted by the military in convergence with right wing politicians toppled the legitimate president: Manuel Zelaya, crushed any civilian resistance and despite international condemnation consolidated there regime in illegal elections. This became a study case in the United States and the region where many want to see left wing politicians as shuch Evo Morales, Hugo Chavez and Rafael Correa overthrown. The Honduras success receipt will be surely repeated in another Latin America country this year. The question is where?
In Bolivia where a so called independent state in the center of the country has elected a parliament and a government and tries to overthrown Evo Morales in a civilian and military coup ? Or in Venezuela where Hugo Chavez is now under Columbian army pressure, irregular militia that crossed the border from Columbia to attack Venezuelan objectives on a daily bases and where United States just opened up military bases?
Finally Rafael Correa of Ecuador is also on the black list; Ecuadorian military trained and grown by United States is also showing sign that could change lines. Where will be the next CIA backed revolution in Latin America? Newsweek citing informed sources from CIA announced that Venezuela is the prime candidate for a ‘freedom’ operation.
China`s decision.
2010 will also be a decisive year for China that will be presented in the Security Council with a sanctions proposal for Iran and Sudan. Both countries are strong allies of China, suppliers with gas and oil for increasing Chinese demands and both countries have a tense relationship with the United States. China will have to decide; to give the go ahead to future sanctions could clear the road for war. Everybody remembers in the Security Council, the 2002 resolution against Iraq that threatened the Baghdad regime with serious consequences if they don’t comply. United States decided that serious consequences could mean war and launched the attack on Iraq. A similar resolution today imposed on Tehran will be just a final step to war. China seemed to be aware of this and will have to choose between open opposition to the United States agenda or temporary acceptance of US demands. The present strategy of China of temporization could no longer work in 2010.
This are just of the few decision that international policy and market decision makers will be confronted in this decisive year between peace and war, crisis or recovery , coup d’état or liberty. The answer will be decided in the next 12 month. We will live with the consequence.
by Professor Anton Caragea PhD, MA, FINS – European Council on International Relations
Net News Publisher for World News
