More Democratic Gains in PA

Already last Tuesday, when the Pennsylvania Dept. of State released preliminary numbers, it was clear that Democrats had made huge gains in voter registration drives before the March 24 deadline. County elections officials are still recording forms sent in by mail, though, and we have a new update (spreadsheet). The numbers keep looking better for Democrats. In just the last week, another 44,053 new voters registered as Dems, while a further 28,064 voters changed their registration to the Democratic Party. Just over 50% of registered voters in the state are now Democrats (4.19 million out of 8.32 million voters). Republicans have dropped to 38%.

Perhaps the most remarkable news is that Democrats now hold a majority in two suburban Philadelphia counties that have been predominantly Republican for many years, Montgomery and Bucks. Last November, Republicans outnumbered Dems in Montgomery by 247,828 to 217,036. As of this week, the numbers are 238,208 to 245,209, meaning that Democrats have added some 28,000 voters in this one county this year. In Bucks County, 20,000 new Democrats were added to create a razor thin majority over the Republican Party.

And nearby in both Chester and Delaware, where four months ago Republicans had about 65,000 more registered voters per county, the deficit has been cut to 35,000. Chester added nearly 20,000 Democrats, Delaware about 22,000. In these four counties combined, total Republican registration dropped by about 25,000. It’s a transformational election for these counties as they loosen a Republican grip on power that goes back generations.

Chester County Democratic Committee member Bill Scott recalled that “when I started in politics, the odds were 3-1″ in favor of the Republicans. “This is good for everybody,” said Scott, former president of the West Chester Borough Council. “We don’t have a one-party system anymore.”

All in all, there have been massive Democratic gains this winter in suburban Philly. Democrats also picked up another 50,000 registrations in Philadelphia.

Elsewhere the gains were more modest. In the Lehigh Valley (Lehigh and Northampton counties), Dems gained about 16,000 voters while Republicans lost about 4,000. Farther north, Luzerne and Lackawanna (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre) added 12,000. In south central PA, York and Lancaster combined added 23,000. And out west in Allegheny (Pittsburgh), there are 25,000 more Democrats. But for the most part, the noteworthy additions to the party rolls are concentrated in the southeast of the state.

What does it mean for the April 22 primary? Philadelphia and suburbs have added about 140,000 new Democrats this year, the rest of the state another 167,000. With his huge ad budget, Obama is set to pick up the great majority of the former in the expensive Philadelphia market. I suspect he’ll do no worse than a split with Clinton of all the rest. An advantage to Obama, then, of some 100,000 new primary voters. If turnout is under 2 million, that will constitute a substantial boost. For what it’s worth, however, others think neither candidate will benefit.

Analysts have said new registrants tended to be young people, who tended to support Mr. Obama. But they also say the suburbs are home to many professional women who care deeply about abortion rights and want to vote for a woman.

“It’s hard to say who benefits,” [Bucks County Chairman John] Cordisco said. “It seems pretty equal. I have friends who have switched parties, and half are voting for Senator Clinton and half are voting for Senator Obama.”

And, no, these new voters are not Republican mischief makers:

Democratic leaders pooh-poohed claims that loyal Republicans switched parties to vote for the Democrat they’d like to see go up against McCain.

“I don’t think that’s the case at all,” Cordisco said. “That’s the Republican leadership’s spin on this.”

Republicans are worried enough to be planning a registration drive to win back voters beginning immediately after the primary. They may even be willing to spend good money on it.

[Republican] party officials believe they can get as much as 40 percent of those who left this year back into the Republican fold after they’ve voted in the primary…

In addition to handing out registration cards at polling sites on April 22, the party plans to send new registration forms to those who have switched parties and to launch a media campaign. Officials would not suggest a cost, saying volunteers would do most of the work…

“I’m not embarrassed by it,” [State GOP Chair Robert Gleason] said. “I don’t like it, but I’m not embarrassed by it.”

Nah, nothing embarrassing about PA voters leaving your party in droves.

Source Daily Kos

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