On 17 of July at European Council on International Relations a letter was published signed by 22 former presidents, intellectual and policy makers from Central and Eastern Europe announcing their mistrust in the new rapprochement policy with Russia . Regarding the abandon of the missile shield in Poland and Czech Republic the letter pointed out: “Abandoning the program entirely or involving Russia too deeply in it,  without consulting Poland or the Czech Republic can undermine the credibility of the United States across the whole region”.  In October 2009 John Biden toured the region proclaiming the US Government’s new vision for Eastern Europe and on 17 of December in Copenhagen Barrack Obama announced a full deal with President Medvedev on all contentious issues. Is this Biden and Obama charm offensive good news for Eastern Europe?

End of confrontational vision.

The first announcement made during visits in Ukraine and Georgia between 20 and 24 July was the end of the confrontational vision at Black Sea that former US President G. Bush supported. Even the visit in those two countries was left to Joe Biden, vice-president while Barack Obama selected Moscow as the main step on his diplomatic journey. This was a gesture never made by the previous administration which only visited Moscow after visiting Romania, Poland or Baltic states in order to send an unambiguous signal that relations with Russia are determined by Russia policy in Eastern Europe. No such signal came from the Obama administration, sending the vice-president was itself a sign of downgrading relations with the region.  Joe Biden also announced to policymakers in Tbilisi and Kiev that now is the time to have better relations with Russia and pressured US allies like Georgia’s Saakashvili to open society and to embrace democracy reform, which was seen as a favorable moved toward pro-Russian opposition which is regularly accusing President Saakashvili of dictatorial ambition. Also in Kiev, Biden didn’t miss the opportunity to meet Victor Janucovici the Kremlin backed main contender for president Victor Yushcenko for presidential bid in 2010 Ukrainian elections. A striking difference from the previously unwavering US support to orange revolution leaders in Ukraine and Georgia.

End of the missile shield.

Between 20 and 23 of October vice-president Biden was in a new diplomatic journey to Eastern Europe visiting Poland, Romania and Czech Republic in order to officially announce the US policy change with regards to the Missile Shield Plan. Announced in 2007 by Bush administration, the Missile shield was seen by many as a continuation of Reagan Star Wars, that help bring down Soviet Union economy and communism system. This time the shield, publicly oriented against Iran, was universally regarded as a pressure against Putin`s Russia. All the leaders of the region have seen this sign of US commitment to the Eastern Europe in the face of a new assertive Russian power. The Obama administration decision to build a small shield, a dedicated counter Iran ballistic system, on the Black Sea in Turkey and Israel and maybe Azerbaijan, was looked at as a further signed of US disengagement in the region. Joe Biden’s visit was projected with the purpose of calming eastern European fears and to build a new relation between the US and Eastern Europe.

A new U.S. strategic vision.

Joe Biden explained in Warsaw, Bucharest and Prague  that: US is not seeing Russia as an enemy and the Cold War perception  of Moscow as a foe that must be isolated under an Iron Curtain is over . The result of this assertion was that the US will not tolerate and support rebellious actions as Georgian-Russian war in summer of 2008 or Ukraine pressure on Russian navy or Romanian plans to counter Russian influence at Black sea and Polish pressure in Belarus. All these actions of harassment backed by previous US administration must end.

Also US is ready to sponsor a detente in the Eastern Europe- Russia relations based on economic and cultural relations and on a new vision of a common economic space between Russia and Europe. This vision of peaceful cooperation is not shared in the region , the 22 former leaders wanted a tougher stance towards the Kremlin: “When it comes to Russia, our experience has been that a more determined and principled policy toward Moscow will not only strengthen the West’s security but will ultimately lead Moscow to follow a more cooperative policy as well”. The US response is a startling: No! to this vision.

A space of economic cooperation.

Instead of political confrontation from the Baltic to the Black Sea, Joe Biden is wanting to see economic cooperation and more precisely: energy cooperation. In Poland he has spoken about energy routes in the Baltic linking Russia and Europe closer, in Romania he spoke about the Trieste- Constanta gas pipeline and a liquid gas terminal at Constanta, based on Qatari gas transported to Romania and from here to Western Europe.  Also Biden expressed support not for the EU backed Nabucco pipeline, destined to override Russia as a gas supplier to Europe but to South Line, a Russian sponsored gas pipeline.  To measure what a disappointment this speech will be for Eastern Europe leaders I quote one more time from their letter: „Central and Eastern European countries should lobby harder … for diversification of the energy mix, suppliers, and transit routes, as well as for tough legal scrutiny of Russia’s abuse of its monopoly and cartel-like power inside the EU. But American political support on this will play a crucial role. Similarly, the United States can play an important role in solidifying further its support for the Nabucco pipeline”.

Finally Joe Biden signaled in all the capitals his wish for a new generation of leaders in Eastern Europe capable to understand the necessity of a new policy towards Russia, in Bucharest, he was paying a lot of attention to opposition leaders in order to signal the US disinterest in the fate of Romanian president Traian Basescu, a former darling of Bush administration, and the play was repeated over and over in Warsaw and Prague.

Lessons of Joe Biden visits and Obama speeches.

First it is interesting  to point out that Biden avoided going to Baltic States , shattered by economic crisis , isolated in EU and pressured by Russia, a sign that the Baltic States must first end their anti-Russian stance and normalize relations with the Kremlin.  Also Biden didn’t visit Bulgaria that already switch to a more conciliatory stance with Russia accepting Russian pipelines on his territory, supporting Russia in Kosovo, Serbia and Balkans relation and opened for strategic business partnership with Russia. Also Hungary that signed a 10 billion agreement on gas, energy and oil with Russia to become Russia`s main energy partner in the region was avoided. For Bulgaria and Hungary the new Washington vision was already in place; make business not war was the tune from the White House. This was a visit to the last remaining pro-Bush strongholds: Poland, Romania and Czech Republic designed to signal that the US is withdrawing support for a confrontational vision. Cohabitation with Russia is a must for the new leaders of the region. The final push into this direction was made by President Obama at Copenhagen when at Copenhagen climate summit announcing a deal on nuclear armaments proclaimed that any confrontation with Russia is detrimental to US interest. Clearly 2009 was the year of a radical change in a 50 year policy with Russia.

by  Professor Anton Caragea PhD, MA, FINS – European Council on International Relations

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