Obama Gains in Indiana SUSA Poll

Indiana is the only state left on the calendar in which the outcome is in doubt — not the “margin of victory”, but the actual winner him- or herself. While most polls have the race in Indiana effectively deadlocked, SUSA had given Clinton a 55-39 lead two weeks ago. Their newest effort has that gap closing.

SurveyUSA. 4/25-27. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/11-13 results)

Clinton 52 (55)
Obama 43 (39)

According to the poll, Clinton leads 52-39 among early voters. But only 2 percent identify themselves as “early voters” meaning that 1) the MoE on that subsample is insane, and 2) even if it wasn’t, so few have voted early that either candidate can still win this thing outright on Election Day.

For once, I’m actually not feeling SUSA. I think they’re overstating Clinton’s support. Research 2000 (which does polling for Daily Kos), has it at 48 Obama, 47 Clinton. ARG has it 50 Clinton, 45 Obama. I think that pegs this race pretty closely — 45-50 for Obama, and 45-50 for Clinton. Close enough that the ground game will likely decide this thing, and neither candidate will win with more than a 5-6 percent margin.

Source Daily Kos

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