Pennsylvania Polls - Political Opinion

There’s not a whole lot of movement here. The numbers have bounced around a bit, but most of the disparity between the pollsters is probably due to different screens to determine likely voters. It’s notoriously difficult to poll for a primary, because it’s hard to use past primaries as a model, especially when the composition of the electorate is changing, in this case with tens of thousands of voters changing their registration to Democratic.

Insider Advantage4/8. MoE 3.6% (4/2 results)

Clinton 48 (45)
Obama 38 (43)

All polls of likely voters:
Public Policy Polling(pdf) 4/7-8. MoE 2.9% (3/31-4/1 results)

Clinton 46 (43)
Obama 43 (45)
Rasmussen4/7. MoE 4.0% (3/31 results)

Clinton 48 (47)
Obama 43 (42)
SurveyUSA 4/5-7. MoE 4.1% (3/29-31 results)

Clinton 56 (53)
Obama 38 (41)
Strategic Vision4/4-6. MoE 3.0% (3/28-30 results)

Clinton 47 (49)
Obama 42 (41)
Quinnipiac 4/3-6. MoE 2.7% (3/24-31 results)

Clinton 50 (50)
Obama 44 (41)

Average of six polls:

Clinton 49
Obama 41

A month ago Clinton was polling 15-20 points ahead of Obama in Pennsylvania. Now Obama has gotten the margin down to about 8, with 12 days left before primary day. Some of that movement was due to Pennsylvania voters not knowing Obama. In every state, initial polls a month or two out from election day show Obama performing much worse than he’s performed in the end. Clinton also took a hit in late March, most likely from her Walter Mitty moments of falsely claiming to have been under sniper fire.

Clinton appears to have stabilized after the hemorrhaging of the sniper stories. If the election were held today, it appears that she would do just as everyone has always expected, and win the Pennsylvania primary by a clear but modest margin. In other words, while she may slightly cut the delegate gap by a dozen or so, she does not appear to be on path to a big win that can put her back in contention for the nomination.

The only decisive result that appears possible is for Obama to narrow the gap and either finish a few points behind Clinton, or possibly even win it. For Clinton to have an argument that she’s got momentum, she probably has to win PA by 15 points or more, something that would be seen as a major throttling of Obama. But a 4 point win will do her very little good, and won’t open up the financial spigots to help her make up her deficits in North Carolina or hold on to her very narrow leads in Indiana.

Obama should be expected to have a strong ground game; he has in most states. Clinton has much of the PA Dem leadership in her corner, so her ground game should also be good. If the Clinton team is able to use the press to leak out something damaging to Obama in the final 72 hours before the campaign, they may be able to separate from Obama and post a win of over 10 points. If Clinton is hurt again between now and the 22nd, Obama might be able to close within 5 points or even win outright. But based on the polls today, the most likely outcome appears to be a clear but modest Clinton win that proves little other than that she was able to use her demographic and political advantages to eke out an OK win in a state where she was always expected to win. Should that happen, we’ll have to look ahead to North Carolina and Indiana for a more decisive outcome that may finally force her to admit that she cannot win and that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

Source Daily Kos

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