As National Unity Negotiations Resume, There are Indications That the Palestinian Factional Struggle May have Reached Its Nadir

Little short-term progress can be expected from resumed Hamas-Fatah negotiations, but the dialogue may ultimately serve to establish the basis for national reconciliation.

Acting in his position as chair of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade is seeking to bring Hamas political bureau head Khalid Meshaal and Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas together for their first face-to-face talks since Hamas’ conquest of Gaza in June 2007.

This bid comes after several days of talks between Hamas and Fatah officials in Dakar last week. Both Palestinian factions expressed optimism following the parlay regarding the “national dialogue initiative,” but appeared to be utilizing the talks to further short-term domestic and diplomatic objectives.

For both movements, the meet was calculated to give the impression of commitment to the restoration of the fractured PA and of their desire for a return to a unified political process.

For Hamas it was also designed to bolster the impression - fostered through previous reconciliation talks, ongoing Gaza truce negotiations and the delivery of a letter from a captured Israeli soldier this week - that the movement is open to diplomatic initiatives and processes.

For Fatah, the parlay sends a clear message to the US that it must do more to promote Israeli flexibility in the current peace negotiations or risk losing the limited gains won through Washington’s support for the peace process and reconstituted PA security services’ crackdown on Hamas in the West Bank.

It was no accident that the Dakar discussions were timed to coincide with an announcement from the head of the Palestinian negotiating team, Ahmed Qurei, that a framework peace agreement was being formulated with Israel that would deal with all key issues.

It is clear that Hamas does not believe that the peace talks will bear fruit. In recent months Hamas has pursued its own diplomatic and security agenda in forcing Israel to the negotiating table through border attacks and rocket and mortar fire on Israeli communities adjacent to the Gaza Strip.

Hamas has also utilized border breaches and bolstered weapons smuggling to build pressure on the Egyptian government to take the unenviable role of interlocutor in tahadiyeh (truce/lull in fighting) negotiations, which continued this week despite disingenuous Israeli threats of a major Gaza offensive.

In a warning to the US and Israel, Abbas last week reversed his previous stance opposing talks with Hamas in lieu of the Islamic movement’s reinstitution of the status quo ante in the Gaza Strip - clearly never a possibility.

Abbas also sought the revival of Saudi involvement in Palestinian national reconciliation talks in his meeting with King Abdullah in Jeddah on Sunday.

The Saudis suspended their arbitration role in the Palestinian factional dispute following the collapse of the Mecca Accord and national unity government in June 2007, but now seem willing to countenance re-engagement via the Arab League.

The level of Saudi commitment is attendant on the success, or otherwise, of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Riyadh will be wary of suffering a second diplomatic reverse at the hands of Hamas, which responded to the monarchy’s tacit acceptance of its legitimacy in the February 2007 Mecca Accord with the conquest of Gaza, in which many regional players saw the hand of Iran.

In an apparent response to the slight warming of Fatah-Hamas relations, legislators are planning to resuscitate the moribund Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) through the establishment of oversight committees.

The collapse of the PLC, facilitated in part by the Israeli mass arrests of Hamas MPs, was a major blow to the democratization process in the PA and, in particular, to the establishment of a legislative counter to executive authority.

Fatah hopes to use whatever peace deal emerges from the current talks as a springboard to regain control of the PLC through fresh elections and has instituted electoral reforms that are expected to benefit Fatah candidates. Victory would cement the movement’s ongoing control of patronage systems within the West Bank public sector and security services - bolstered in recent months by US largesse and the resumption of Israeli tax and customs payments.

Despite the Dakar and previous Yemen-brokered talks in March, it remains to be seen whether hard-line elements within Hamas’ diffuse leadership structure and armed wing are committed to reconciliation with Fatah and shared control of restored PA institutions in Gaza, as envisaged in the failed Sana’a draft agreement.

It is clear that the damage done to the fragile fabric of the PA’s national institutions by the Gaza putsch and retaliatory Fatah usurpation of governance powers in the West Bank cannot be reversed overnight and that dangerous retrograde forces have been unleashed that threaten fundamental fragmentation and further radicalization.

In an atmosphere poisoned by ongoing mutual suppression and atrocities it will be extremely difficult to build the trust crucial to future stability.

Nevertheless, the Dakar, Cairo and Sana’a talks are an important indicator that the high-water mark in the Palestinian factional struggle may have been reached and that a detente could emerge from the current turmoil that allows for an easing of tensions and the gradual establishment of power-sharing arrangements via revived Palestinian national institutions.

Gaza has taught that this, and not the establishment of repressive mechanisms, will be the keystone for the successful establishment of a Palestinian state in the wake of a necessary Israeli West Bank withdrawal.

By Dr Dominic Moran, based in Tel Aviv, ISN Security Watch’s senior correspondent in the Middle East and the Director of Operations of ISA Consulting.

Source ISN

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